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President Erdoğan denied the perception that there was a ‘problem’ with the alliance he formed with the MHP on Monday. Erdoğan stated, ‘We will continue to work tirelessly with our alliance partner and our nation until we achieve the Turkey Century.’
MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli expressed his approach to the issue at his party’s group meeting as follows: ‘There is absolutely no disagreement or political conflict between the Nationalist Movement Party and the People’s Alliance regarding the goal of a Turkey free of terrorism.’
The two leaders once again said, ‘There is no problem between us.’ Erdoğan is expected to emphasise this idea a little more strongly in his speech today. However, it would be incorrect to view Bahçeli’s speech yesterday as merely a message of ‘unity.’ In his speech, Bahçeli sent multiple messages to Erdoğan, showing that the crisis is not over and the rift has not been repaired.
WHAT DOES BAHÇELİ WANT?
There are two important messages, or rather demands, in the speech by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli. The first is that Demirtaş should be released from prison as soon as possible; the second is that the commission established in Parliament should meet with Öcalan. Bahçeli stated that the MHP is also ready to support the commission’s visit to İmralı.
Bahçeli is insisting on the tactic he has been pursuing for a long time. He does not shy away from repeating the steps he wants to see taken, until the issue is resolved. It is fair to say that this tactic has worked, albeit belatedly, up to now. Erdoğan will take some kind of step on both of these issues. However, it should also be noted that this time he does not have as much time as before.
It is possible to say that there is a maximum period of one week for visits to both Demirtaş and İmralı.
WILL THE NECESSARY ALLIANCE END?
What will happen if Erdoğan does not take action on the two issues Bahçeli said ‘must be done’ from the podium of Parliament yesterday? First, let’s look at the possible scenarios, reiterating that Erdoğan will not be very resistant on this issue.
Bahçeli has repeatedly stated how important these two issues are to him. To better understand his sensitivity, he even touched on details such as the Öcalan-Demirtaş relationship in his latest speech: ‘We know very well who benefits from creating discord between İmralı and Edirne. Those who want to lay mines between Öcalan and Demirtaş should anticipate that no one will fall for this game.’
Clearly, he considers not taking action on either issue to be ‘falling for the game.’ He does not stop there but takes a further step: ‘If the elected delegation goes to Imrali and receives the necessary message first-hand, the process will accelerate. Imrali has kept its word and stood by its statements.’
Bahçeli is clearly telling Erdoğan, ‘Now it’s your turn to take action.’ If the AKP fails to act after these words, it will open the door to a serious crisis. However, it is also clear that the People’s Alliance, no matter how big it is, will not end in a crisis. Both parties need this alliance and cannot easily discard it. Palliative measures and talks will inevitably follow. However, it is also possible to say that the relationship will suffer serious damage.
WHY WAS HE ANGRY WITH BARRACK?
To understand the process leading to the crisis in the Erdoğan-Bahçeli relationship, we must look at one last statement. As will be recalled, after stating at a meeting he attended last weekend that Turkey and Israel would not go to war, US Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack said, ‘There will be full cooperation from the Caspian to the Mediterranean.’
MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli reacted very harshly to this statement, just as he did to the Cyprus elections. It does not seem very logical to react so harshly to Barrack, who makes it his duty to speak on every issue, because of these words. The MHP leader took a swift and high-pitched stance on two issues. It is very clear that Bahçeli’s real target is neither Erhürman, who won the election in Cyprus, nor Barrack. The real target is none other than Erdoğan.
THE US-ERDOĞAN RELATIONSHIP
Relations between the MHP and the AKP began to sour just before President Erdoğan’s meeting with US President Trump. From that point on, Bahçeli began to openly express his discomfort with Erdoğan’s close alignment with US policy on issues such as Syria, Cyprus and Palestine.
This discomfort stems not so much from the policy being pursued as from the fact that the Erdoğan-Trump relationship established abroad strengthens the possibility of the MHP being sidelined at home. It seems that Bahçeli has recently begun to suspect that Erdoğan might establish a regime without the MHP.
Bahçeli, who lacks the power to significantly alter the balance of foreign policy, is building his politics around discussions of the ‘solution process’ while being willing to accept any political figure who can strengthen his position domestically. It is worth viewing his desire to have both Öcalan and Demirtaş on his side through this lens. It would come as no surprise if he soon makes a similar call to the CHP.
THE AKP’S CONCERN IS THE BALLOT BOX
The Erdoğan-Bahçeli rivalry is increasingly turning into a debate over the direction the regime will take. While Bahçeli seeks a place for himself in the new regime, Erdoğan is trying to ensure that change is carried out under his family’s leadership. From now on, every step taken domestically or internationally will be evaluated by the ruling partners through the question of ‘who does it benefit?’
This means that the tension within the ruling coalition will continue until the election. While the AKP is trying to proceed with minimal risk until the election, the MHP is aware that it can maintain its position with a more assertive policy. Behind all the show of strength, the ruling bloc is actually experiencing very difficult days.
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Çatlağı hiçbir sıva kapatamaz, published in BirGün newspaper on November 5, 2025.
