İbrahim Varlı
The first phase of the process, dubbed ‘Terror-Free Turkey’ by the ruling party and ‘Peace and Democratic Society Process’ by the Kurdish movement, came to an end on 26 October. Both PKK and DEM Party representatives announced that the ‘second phase’ had begun. The AKP side also heralded the ‘opening of a new page,’ emphasising ‘internal consolidation.’ Having concluded the first phase and initiated the second, the PKK announced that it would withdraw all its units in Turkey to the Media Defence Zones, i.e., northern Iraq. The statement from the foothills of Kandil, which stated that ‘the conflicts and wars in the Middle East have become a very serious threat to the future of Turkey and the Kurds,’ reveals the driving motivation behind this process, as Fehim Taştekin also emphasised.
MOTIVATION BEHIND THE PROCESS
The process initiated in Turkey, but defined differently by each actor due to a lack of agreement even on its name, was not the result of the Palace regime’s desire for a solution, but rather a consequence of developments in Syria and the Middle East. The accelerated one-year course of the process essentially began with Erdoğan’s statement in August 2024 that ‘Israel’s eyes are on Turkey.’ Subsequently, the first step was taken on 1 October when Bahçeli went to the DEM ranks. This was concretised by Bahçeli’s call for ‘the right to hope’ for Öcalan in Parliament on 22 October, the permission granted for a delegation to visit İmralı on 27 December, and Öcalan’s ‘Call for Peace and a Democratic Society’ on 27 February.
The PKK’s decision to declare a ceasefire on 1 March, the announcement of the ‘dissolution decision’ at the 12th Congress on 5-7 May, and the burning of weapons in Sulaymaniyah on 11 July as a sign of ‘goodwill’ were the outcomes of this process. On Sunday, 26 October, the dissolution was finalised when the PKK declared that it had withdrawn its armed elements from Turkey.
SYRIA-INDEXED
All eyes are now on the AKP government. However, as the first phase of the process ends, the regime, which is accelerating its authoritarian steps internally, asks: Quo Vadis? Both the PKK and DEM announced that the ‘second phase’ of the process had begun. The AKP also announced that ‘a new page has been turned,’ emphasising ‘internal consolidation.’ While the regime, which is accelerating authoritarianism domestically, is pursuing internal consolidation through a process indexed to Syria, it has not been able to go beyond ‘commission talks’ in the one-year process.
The regime’s main motivation is Syria. While both the PKK and the DEM Party voice demands for ‘democratic integration,’ Turkey insists on the “integration” of Kurds into Syria.
In the slow-moving talks between the SDG and Damascus, which also deeply affect the process in Turkey, differences over how ‘integration’ should take place remain unresolved. The fundamental issues remain unresolved in the talks between the SDF and Damascus, mediated by the US. While US Ambassador Tom Barrack and Trump attempt to steer the process with a ‘carrot and stick strategy,’ developments in Syria are not independent of the broader picture in the Middle East.
Naturally, developments there directly affect the Ankara-İmralı negotiations. The intertwined processes have a multiplier effect.
SERIOUS RISKS
The statements in yesterday’s DEM announcement are noteworthy in terms of showing the multidimensional nature of the issue: ‘We can only overcome the wave of danger coming to Turkey and the region through democratic negotiations. The way to do this is through the implementation of transitional justice and democratic integration laws.’
According to Middle East expert Yusuf Karataş, who closely follows the process, there are significant differences between the two sides in terms of the policies they have put forward so far and the goals they want to achieve. Therefore, despite the expectations created, there are serious risks ahead for the process.
PROCESS ON HOLD
The regime, which wants to divide the opposition and draw the Kurds to its side for the sake of its own survival, is signalling that it will put the process on hold with a series of symbolic steps.
While AKP Parliamentary Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated that a new era had begun, one in which only democracy and ideas would be discussed, with weapons now completely laid down, the government was accelerating its authoritarian steps. While the regime used the withdrawal of the units, announced by the PKK as a “historic step”, as internal political fodder, there is no sign of any concrete steps.
DEM Party MP Sinan Çiftyürek also pointed to this situation, saying, ‘In the first phase, the Kurds did what they had to do on their side. However, the state did not take any concrete steps, either legally or politically. There are no concrete signs that it will do so now. Therefore, the state must first provide a legal framework. A legal framework is needed.’
Çiftyürek criticises the process being indexed to Syria, saying: ‘Our call is to the state. It should not link the issue to Syria, specifically Rojava. For many years, the state’s mind has been more on Rojava than on internal matters. It is focused on ending the status there. Every issue is resolved in its own sphere.’
PAINS OF A HISTORIC STEP
It is contrary to the nature of things for a regime that seizes opposition municipalities, punishes its rivals, and tries to silence the media to bring democracy. While the one-man regime tells stories of democracy and peace through the ‘process,’ ‘democratic integration’ goes no further than being a pleasant sound. As Karataş also emphasised, the Palace regime wants to use the process initiated on the Kurdish issue as a basis for putting pressure on all opposition forces, starting with the main opposition’s presidential candidate. No democratic integration will come from this.
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Sürecin 1. aşaması biterken: Quo Vadis, published in BirGün newspaper on October 28, 2025.
